Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
When half the field is comprised of firsters...then I don't give the race a second look. In the other cases, the quality of the more "experienced" competition will decide how I will approach the remaining firsters. The more accomplished the experienced horses look...the more I will doubt the winning chances of even the well-regarded firsters. If the field looks below average ability-wise, then I will include a "well-connected" firster in my horizontal wagers...but I never have enough confidence to wager on such a horse to win. I mean...even Secretariat lost his first race.
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With betting money - That's what I look for. A vulnerable favorite among those who have run.
Sometimes you've got a vulnerable favorite, and it's as simple as saying that the FTSs haven't proven that they can't win, so you use them in some fashion
for general interest or an add-on to a multi-race wager- trainer/owner/jockey/works/tote or at least morning line if betting early...
Beware the 'buzz' horse FTS... Usually flashy works for a flashy trainer. They are useful to include in a multi-race sequence, but taking a short price to win is hit-or-miss.
