Look at the figures of the horses who have run - If none of them have run within two lengths of the par figure for the final speed par of the class of today's race, then the race is more vulnerable to being won by a first time starter. Common exceptions to this guideline include:
a) the presence of a horse who is dropping from MdSpWt to Mdn Claiming, especially when combined with blinkers on and/or first time lasix
b) the presence of a horse who projects to a clear lead at the first and second call
Hope this helps.
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