I think more attention should be paid to the breakdown rate in Kentucky. Here is a recent article from Louisville triggered by the SA mess:
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ky/3078859002/
"statistics show 36 thoroughbreds sustained fatal race-related injuries in Kentucky in 2018. This was the state’s highest total since 2007 and, at 2.39 per 1,000 starts, an average Scollay (Ky state vet) described as “unprecedented.” The mortality rate was higher still at Churchill Downs, where veterinarians' reports showed 16 race-related fatalities in 5,856 starts (2.73 per 1,000 starts), with eight more fatalities in training....*****Scollay cautioned that training fatalities are likely understated because the data is drawn only from live race meets with veterinary staffing on site.*****" Note: 2017 death rate was 1.33.
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At Santa Anita, there is no missing of deaths, so the actual KY death rate is surely worse than LA. Interesting that the death rate at Ky Downs (all turf) was very high just like SA, which, for me, indicates that all this main track panic is useless.
Kentucky has been doing necropsies on all the horses, and they have said bone chips were sent for analysis of bisphosphonates, yet there has been no report of results. I have found literally hundreds of scientific articles which discuss the concentration of bisphosphonates in bones, plus I earlier linked to the actual method. It is fair to conclude that finding the drug in bones is not difficult, yet still no reports.
I find the final quote intriguing: "Scollay said she has developed some speculations on the source of the problem, but that those theories were not far enough advanced to be shared publicly. The search for answers is ongoing, but it isn’t easy". Come on now. Reveal those test results for bisphosphonates. If they are not present, then we can cross out one possibility, but judging by all the hullabaloo last week in Maryland, I have my doubts.
