Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Has nothing to do with better handicapping and everything to do with someone consistently being allowed to bet after the masses do. Let's say you're the best handicapper in the world and I'm just very good, you know a horse should be 2-1 and it's 7-2 at zero MTP. You of course place your bet, now they're loading and I'm able to sit at the hub with a hook in the system, when the gates pop I know this horse is actually closer to 3-1 at that moment and the windows will lockout in say 5-10 seconds. The difference at this point isn't handicapping, the difference is my advantage when betting this late, you're a sitting duck now, you have no defense.
I simply bet just enough to take the horse down to 2-1. Let's say you're correct and long-term this horse wins at 2-1, you break-even at best and I break-even plus I get a big rebate check. These people will rarely end up getting paid back less than their odds-line, for everyone else it's inevitable to land on too many underlays, especially at tracks like Mountaineer where an absurd 48% of the pool is coming in after 0 MTP.
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Part of handicapping is estimating the price you'll be getting, sizing your bets appropriately, and planning when to bet. To counter your example, simply bet the price down to what you think is fair e.g. 2-1 in your example. You'll get the rebate too... Perhaps you (not you necessarily, but anyone in this situation), don't have the funds available to bet the price down, or you don't have the technological knowhow to read in price data at the time you'd like. Those things don't make the game unfair. There's no structural barrier in the game that won't allow you to accomplish them. It's simply you not being good enough or not working as hard as your competitors. Capitalism at its finest.
