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Old 02-19-2018, 01:14 PM   #48
thaskalos
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I normally agree with a lot of your thoughts but this one I have to diverge.

I actually think its very easy to be "that" guy.

The only way to consistently win is to find edge/advantage and then make bets that capitalize on that.

For me, see I aint so smart, so I keep it simple and only bet to win and I only make a handful of bets per week.

But if I was really good I would be able to make bets based on my superior predictions of races, which I truly believe I can do. I am right way more than I am wrong.

But these guys that are really good, they see that edge and can craft bets that take advantage. They may not even love the race(s) the bet, but they see something, a weak favorite, a very strong favorite, a chaos type race, etc etc and they put together tickets that advantage of that edge.

I believe Steve Crists book was brilliant, but I think when I see the bets laid out by some of these professionals, it was a little simplistic.
Yes...but can this be done without possessing an above-average set of handicapping skills? Can I reliably spot the "weak favorites" if I am not a strong handicapper?

This game is tough...and getting tougher. To stay afloat, the horseplayer must possess BOTH...adequate handicapping skills AND adequate betting skills. BOTH sets of skills are vital...and it's folly to believe that one set is "more important" than the other...IMO. In an ultra-competitive gambling endeavor such as this...there is no money left on the table for the player with glaring weaknesses in his game.

Of course...admitting that he is a weak handicapper is a major blow to the ego of the "veteran player"...so, he attributes his wagering losses to his haphazard betting. "I am a very good handicapper...but I just need a little help structuring my wagers"...he says. It's comforting when we deceive ourselves...
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Last edited by thaskalos; 02-19-2018 at 01:16 PM.
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