2/03/18 Withers Stakes, 9.0F, Aqueduct
DRF Chart -
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180203&RN=8
Timeform Figures 1/4-
141 1/2-
141 3/4-
131 1m-
117 Final Fig-109
Analysis – Avery Island: While much of the talk will be about Audition’s win this weekend Avery Island could make the case to have run the best prep. What looked like a loose on the lead trip quickly turned into anything but when Coltinmississippi decided to gun for the lead, acting as rabbit for his other stable mates. Quickly the two leaders found themselves going way too fast for the distance with code red figures of 141 for the first two splits. While Avery Island did back off a tad the damage was done, he started to tire but only marginally, and held off Firenze Fire and Marconi. The 109 speed figure is not nearly indicative of the effort, the TUS pace adjusted figure was 114 and in my opinion looking at the way the trip developed would bump him up even higher.
Firenze Fire: This race is a definite indictment about this horses ability to go this far. I will give him a bit of credit in that he moved into the pace on the backstretch and would have definitely been better off waiting till the turn, and that may be an indication of the distance issues…its tough to take a real positive view of him Derby wise, solid horse though.
Marconi: I mean this was the ideal trip right, but this one paced horse could not make up any ground on the winner despite a huge advantage in setups. He earned a 107 adjusted figure, on my ability figures it would be even lower. Maybe Pletcher takes him down to GP and he airs but there really only seems like marginal ability at this point.
Coltinmississippi – just going to keep him on my radar for when he is put in the right spot, that’s two races in a row he has a trip I like to bet off of.
Race Replay
