That's been working pretty good for me.
Chalk (or in the case of disliked chalk, the 'top contender)
you want him to be a solid 'show' bet.
(If he's an odds-on and paying $2.20 or less, skip the show bet.)
Bet the $10 MONEY BACK SPECIAL on that guy
Bet $50 or so to show (gut check, if you wouldn't feel confident then you have to reassess your whole pick and maybe sit this one out, champ)
Now if you see an interesting OTHER HORSE & want to play around and you see a mid-priced or long-shot with something attractive = you can also bet $1 or $2 to Win on that guy, and a 1-number Daily-Double or whatever 'lean' ticket suits you. (total $2-$5 or so)
Basically you are making a show bet, with a *bonus*... that's how I have to determine whether it's a value.
Comes in 2nd or 3rd, you just win the show bet. Comes in first, you get a nice boost. Worse than 3rd- you lose ~$70 bucks
The dutch is a small hedge, and you get a shot on that lone-speed long shot or that super-owner claimed horse that may improve 10pts...
Not some genius stuff, but it's a solid approach given you would already be willing to bet $50 bucks on the horse to show.
Conservative-leaning? bet a fraction $2Win $10Show no hedge or $1Win on the 'dutch' alternative
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-18-2021 at 05:33 PM.
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