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Pacelines
I've been doing some reading in the PA Archive Software section lately.
I read something very interesting...from our own Jeff P. of J-Capper fame. This was from about 10 years ago.
First, a little backround--I use the LAST paceline...it's easy and quick. I show the horse's last two 1st call positions, and lengths behind the leader at that call.
The reason being, if there is a big difference--say the last race shows the horse 5th and 8 lengths behind at the 1st call--and the race before that--the horse was 2nd by 1/2 length...you need to check the pp's and see what happened.
Could be the horse had gate trouble, etc...OR the trainer had no intention of "trying" that last time out. Especially noticeable if the horse comes right back in 2 or 3 weeks.
I've been scoffed, chuckled at, etc for generally using the last paceline, if nothing seems out of the ordinary.
Here is the comment from Jeff P 10 years ago, and btw--if you didn't know...he's forgotten more than most of us will ever know about handicapping:
"I've spent a lot of R&D time over the years subjecting just about every method of selecting pacelines I could imagine to hard database testing.
Based on my own R&D using large data samples, came to the conclusion that paceline selection isn't nearly as important as a lot of players think it is.
Provided that the same set of rules for picking lines was uniformly applied to every horse in every race... differences between the best and worst performing sets of paceline rules-- were surprisingly small."
SO...my goal with my programs was, and is - to make handicapping as easy and stress-free as possible...yet still win races. That is why using the last paceline 90% of the time, works for me.
-NCG
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