Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
There are more extremely slow paces on turf. Those can impact the times. But the smaller variations that are typical don't have much impact on the results in turf races as they do on dirt.
If some dirt group is expected to go 46 and 111 early and they go 45 2/5 and 110 instead, that could be huge because they may me bumping up against the limits of their speed and will tire.
If some turf group is expected to go 48 and 112 and they go 47 2/5 and 111 instead, it may not change the outcome much at all because they are still running well within their cruising speed.
I believe Timeform figures recognize this reality. Look at some "red colored" paces in turf races, you'll see that the final times are not adjusted as much in turf races as they are in dirt races when paces are fast.
And since turf horses are often running at a slower pace and well within themselves, it's more difficult to project who among those with some early speed will get the lead. They often haven't shown what they are capable of if actually asked and the jockeys know the disadvantage to taking back is not as big on turf. They want to be close, but they'd rather draft, and save ground.
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What you are saying is in complete agreement with an observation I made in a post some time ago on the effects of pace. The effects of increasing pace are exponential rather than linear so that a large increase in early speed is more tiring exponentially than would be expected, so true, pace differences in high pace races have more of an effect than when the pace is slow.
Also true that one is more likely to see slow pace races on grass than on dirt, so we are in agreement on this point.
However, what I am saying is that this difference in the effect of pace is not dependent on the surface. As Roland states so well, the laws of physics do not change with a change in surface, so the differential effects of pace do not vary on different surfaces. In making pace adjustments one must look to the actual race being considered rather than how these type races are traditionally run. That is why in the U.K. they are beginning to see the equal value of sectional analysis (and pace patterns) in grass as well as all other surfaces.
Pace will have a lessor effect on a slow paced dirt race than on a fast paced grass race and therefore, using a different algorithm for pace adjustments and color coding on turf races and dirt races based solely on the different surfaces is incorrect.
