Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
They may be even more valuable on turf. Final times and speed figures vary more on turf than on dirt, mainly due to variations in pace. That's why sectional times are crucial in turf races to explain and adjust for the pace and it's effect on final times.
Rightly or wrongly, Europeans value finishing ability more than having early speed, which is why they are less interested in pace. Even when the English Timeform does sectional timing, its only for the last 3 furlongs. That doesn't make the early pace less important, just a reflection of what they value and how they run their races. The services that do more complete sectional timing and pace analysis are beginning to show their added value in the U.K. They are also important in showing the importance of pace patterns on all surfaces, which is only recently being studied, and someday even quantified, as in cj's study. One needs all the sectional splits to do this. While I first discovered the value of using pace patterns in dirt races, I find this analysis just as useful in turf races.
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There are more extremely slow paces on turf. Those can impact the times. But the smaller variations that are typical don't have much impact on the results in turf races as they do on dirt.
If some dirt group is expected to go 46 and 111 early and they go 45 2/5 and 110 instead, that could be huge because they may me bumping up against the limits of their speed and will tire.
If some turf group is expected to go 48 and 112 and they go 47 2/5 and 111 instead, it may not change the outcome much at all because they are still running well within their cruising speed.
I believe Timeform figures recognize this reality. Look at some "red colored" paces in turf races, you'll see that the final times are not adjusted as much in turf races as they are in dirt races when paces are fast.
And since turf horses are often running at a slower pace and well within themselves, it's more difficult to project who among those with some early speed will get the lead. They often haven't shown what they are capable of if actually asked and the jockeys know the disadvantage to taking back is not as big on turf. They want to be close, but they'd rather draft, and save ground.
