Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I haven't finished handicapping that card, but in general I think she's the speed of the speed and will be sent from the inside. She feels a little unreliable to me because she's thrown in some clunkers and she's being stretched out again in a race that does have other speeds. But I wouldn't want be the horse chasing her if she's still on her game after that last effort.
The more perplexing one to me is Guarana. She ran better than I expected in the Acorn and easily handled Serengeti Empress on a track that was better inside for SE (although SE was kid of rushed up after a less than ideal start), but I wasn't overly impressed with her last race even though it was good.
I can't use both of them or what's the point.
Maybe a bias will help make the analysis easier.
Then I'll probably search for a closer to pick up the pieces or blow the race up if the pace gets very hot or the track is playing that way (Street Band?). Still have to take a better look at those.
Covfefe is coming back too, but in a softer spot.
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My first thought was she would be tough to beat, but I think she is going to face heavy pressure from Jaywalk and possibly Jeltrin too. If she doesn't, she is going to have to run very fast to be clear. I'm not a big bounce guy but it is possible the Test took something out of her as well. That was a big race for a 3yo filly that could extract a toll.
Guarana's last race is a strange one, no pace and she probably doesn't want to be on the lead. Of the two I'd probably go with her in a match up bet. I'm not sure she'll offer any value.
