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Originally Posted by Greyfox
Your example wouldn't be an automatic toss in my play and the newbie may be right over Ivey.
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He may be right - in fact he is by my database over 32% of the time. But at a 0.70 ROI, people like Ivey will be tossing said horse out often times, trying to get paid a nice score to be ROI positive, and not worrying about losing a ticket 32% of the time.
Any "obvious" bet into 22% takeout is a bad bet in racing. If everyone else is doing something, true gamblers with a shot at beating the rake want nothing to do with it.
This is difficult for people to understand because handicapping books, ad nauseum, have conditioned them to do one thing and one thing only - pick winners. Picking winners that everyone else is picking is a one way ticket to the poor house.
