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Originally Posted by DeanT
Take for example, a MSW to MCL dropper with a positive jock switch. A newbie would want to bet the horse more than likely. While a guy like Ivey would probably say "he's dropping in class, he is getting this big jockey change and he is advertised as the ML fave, which everyone can see plain as day on the form; so why would I want anything to do with him?"
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Your example wouldn't be an automatic toss in my play and the newbie may be right over Ivey. A MSW to MCL drop and Positive Jockey Switch are huge factors in Southern California. It may be the favorite, but it cannot be ruled out until you've determined that it's vulnerable in the race.
Low odds alone do not make a horse vulnerable.
