Looking to classify this race, I have a system I used, drived from an article HalvOnHorseracing wrote
about playing turf races.
I rank each horse by the highest class level it has run and look for 30% of the race to meet the level
of the race. So for 14 horses, I need 4 horse to rank as "1".
To rate the horse, I look at past wins as follows:
Gr1 =1
Gr2 = 2
Gr3 = 3
Open Stake = 4
Restricted/State Bred Stake = 5
Beyer Pars - Gr1 9 furlongs dirt = 108 Turf = 104 Looking for a fig within 5 points.
01. Yoshida. Best race is a Gr1 TURF win, earned a 106, better than par.
02. Imperative. Best is Gr2 in the slop at CT, earned a 96, very poor Gr1 figure and a "weird" track.
03. Patch. Won a NW1 allowance slow steak time.
04. Tawrit. Won a Gr1 (Belmont) last year in 103. Age adjusted, probably close to today's par.
05. Hence. Won a Gr3 last year, 92 fig. Slow. Recent figs are better, but still slow.
06. Term of Art. Beaten a neck in the Gr3 at Mnr in 95 time. Slow
07. Beaten a neck in a Gr1 on turf in Florida - 102 fig puts it in range for today.
08. Discreet Lover. Won Gr3 in 98 time - slow.
09. Gunnevera. Won a Gr2 for 3yos last year, and ran a 104 and 109 Gr1 stakes last year.
10. Seeking the Soul. Won the Gr1 Clark in 103.
11. Won a Gr3, slow 96.
12. Sunny Ridge. No stakes win showing, but a 102 last out in a Gr4 win.
13. Zanotti. Within 1/2 length in a Gr3 in good time, 102.
14. Rally Cry. Second to Gun Runner in this race last year, only 2 starts since. Has run a 102 and a 110.
This is a Gr3 race. Close to Gr1, but not enough horses and some on turf.
Horses who have run well in Gr2 or Gr1 races and run within par are contenders. You have to take post position into account here, too.
1,4, 7,9,10, 12, 13, and 14 are contenders.
4-1
3-1
7-1
8-1
