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Old 01-10-2017, 10:25 AM   #4
traynor
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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I tracked missouts for years, mainly because it only takes a line or two of code to automate the process. I found it much more useful to track ROI. Meaning, "if I do this over 1000 races, what will my returns look like (in graphic format)". Big ups and downs usually indicate chasing rainbows--the return in a small sample used for "creating the strategy" is often misleading, with the (apparent, but only apparent) ROI the result of a few anomalies. Those anomalies are the source of the problem because they rarely repeat in subsequent samples.

That seems to be the major reason the rainbow chasers (and others seeking "life-changing scores") seem to do so poorly in the real world. Their strategies are based primarily on anomalies.

Rather than missouts and possible losing streaks, it might be more illuminating to track fluctuations in ROI over the course of many, many races. As CincyHorseplayer pointed out, a modest win every 5 or 10 races can create the illusion of a "sure thing". Winning races break the missout pattern, even if the win(s) continue(s) the (actual) losing streak. Monitoring fluctuations in (actual) returns can paint a way different picture than monitoring the number of sequential races lost.
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