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Originally Posted by ultracapper
Not good!!! Change that goal right now. Defensive gambling is losing gambling, particularly at the track. And you really should reconsider the escalation clause in your risk assessment model as Thask suggested. The best way to avoid going bankrupt is to build.
Go forward young man, and don't look back. Put $0 in your rear view mirror.
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I don't disagree with that strategy at all, assuming I have a profitable handicapping model. I don't know that. Step 1 is to prove the model, which I'm assuming to be 2,000 wagers. At that point, I'll know roughly what my ROI/winning percentages are, and I can size wagers appropriately. As of now, I may be losing. I have no idea. The sample sizes I'm using to even decide to start tracking each wager is actually too small by miles, but $2 a pop isn't going to kill me if I'm making bad bets.
That said, I could do all of this without even wagering since I make no decisions. I don't even look at the bets before I make them, so no emotion comes into play.
I'm in no hurry. If I'm making money after 2,000 wagers, I'll start trying to maximize my winnings. I'm 325 wagers in and up about $27.50.
