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I agree with your analysis, but I also think that the disadvantages of using others' figures (even if you don't know exactly how they were derived, or no matter how publicly available they are) can be overcome to a large extent by:
1) giving the figures their proper proportionate weight in the overall handicapping picture, rather than viewing them as the be-all/end-all determinant of which horse to bet on;
2) using the figures as part of a process of assigning a fair winning probability to each horse in the race, rather than concentrating solely on narrowing a field down to the one most likely winner through a process of elimination; and
3) betting based on pari-mutuel value rather than on winning probability alone.
In light of those considerations, I think that it boils down to a question of whether you consider the effort required to make your own figures justified by a comparison of the value of your time and the number of races you can handicap, versus the incremental benefit in hit rates and higher mutuels from the use of your own figures (even if you believe or can show that they are more accurate/precise than those from other sources).
Last edited by Overlay; 09-26-2014 at 02:03 AM.
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