Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
No disrespect meant but do you have a database of projected odds versus actual odds using your approach? If not, what you have is "anecdotal."
I can tell you that the approach I offer translates into the projected favorite actually being the 1st or 2nd choice 84% of the time.
As for NYRA, yes, projecting the tote is very track/circuit dependent. In addition, it is also very sensitive to days of the week and level of track.
In fact, DOW and track class level is probably more important than being track-specific. This is because we no longer live in a "home-track" environment. While many of us may think of a specific track as home, across the land of data we find people playing multiple tracks.
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I agree with you and I am sure your approach is accurate. One thing,I can tell you and I don't mean this in a disrespectful way, because I see all the work you have done, but if you want to take the time or if someone has a data base and just tracks DD will pays on a regular basis,I aim willing to guess that the favorite in the double is 1st or 2nd choice more than 84 % of the time in NY. Other than knowing which horse will be 1st or 2nd choice, this doesn't mean much to me.I agree that we no longer have the home track environment and certainly some out of the out of town town tracks using the DD probables might not come close to 84%1st or 2nd choice.
