Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
This is what my data tells me.
Most important for the data you probably have:
1. Morning Line
2. High-level factor such as BRIS Prime Power. (We use HDW's PSR.)
3. Speed Ratings, time-weighted. (i.e. newer ratings are worth more.)
4. Trainer standings at the track.
5. Early running style.
6. Jockey standings at the track.
We use similar to these in our software. Biggest difference is that we have 3 different high-level factors (i.e. like BRIS Prime Power).
Thus, ours looks like:
1. ML
2. PSR
3. Older version of PSR.
4. RTG (A proprietary factor that using 32 other factors weighted.)
5. Speed Ratings (weighted for races back).
6. Trainer at the track.
Once these numbers are computed, they must be normalized to 100%.
Steps to finalize
1. The final percents must be skewed towards the top by about 9%. That is, build a "normal" for the race. Example, 10% in a 10-horse field is a 1.00. In an 8-horse field 12.5% becomes 1.00.
2. Raise all of the "IVs" to the power of 1.09.
3. Normalize once again to 100%.
This will give you some pretty good pool percentages which can then be turned into odds.
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Dave,not wanting to make this sound too simple.Everything you have mentioned is probably built in to the will pays.I am generally talking about NY racing. Speed figures and trainer patterns are definitely part of the will pays Jockeys have always affected price in NY. Even most trips are included. If you are a good enough race watcher and can pick up something subtle, that might not be included. Probably,also included in those figures are the sheet players.Last week a player names Marc at GiddyUPBETs,saw something not included in numbers and picked a $$40.00 horse at Saratoga. He uses numbers, but saw something the numbers didn't show. I didn't bet the horse and have no affiliation with the company, but that is the kind of information.that every once in awhile slips thru the cracks.
