Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO, if the short-priced favorite figures to be out of the exacta...then a lot more "leverage" is achieved by keeping it out of the trifecta, as well. My experience tells me that these short-priced favorites are seldom the stretch-runners in the race; they are usually early-speed types who seek to take control of the race by the time the horses round the final turn. If such a horse figures to be passed late by two horses, then it could easily be passed by three...and the reward easily trumps the risk, as far as I am concerned.
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I am not presenting what my experience or gut tells me. I looked at over 15 years of results where odd-on horses ran out of the top 2 spots. I found that the trifecta payoff relative to the exacta payoff was rewarded with a significantly higher payoff than the probability of the odds-on horse running 3rd. So if an exacta pays $100 and the probability of running 3rd is 50% after not running 1st or 2nd, then a fair price on the trifecta would be $200 with the odds-on horse running 3rd.
