Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
We once had a professional player as a client whose specialty was to play low-odds horses that he had tossed as being bad win bets in the lower positions in exotics.
(Tough sentence. Let me say it again.)
Specifically, he would KEY those losing propositions.
1. He would pick his contenders.
2. Then he would look at his low-odds non-contenders.
3. He would bet the low-odds N/Cs underneath in exotics.
4. Example: He'd bet them in Ex2, Tri2 and Tri3, and Sup3 and Sup4.
His logic was that the Low N/Cs that were less-likely to win were likely to get into an inordinate number low Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.
In our research, we have (anecdotally) for the most part, found this to be true.
Another (again, anecdotal) odd thing we've seen is that when choosing among multiple low-odds contenders, the ones most likely to be spoilers are the ones that were projected to be the worst bets in the win pool.
Dave
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I have recommended doing the above for years. It is amazing the amount of additional leverage achieved by just playing the short priced horse in the 3rd slot of a trifecta. If a race is compelling enough to make exacta bets without the short priced favorite in the 1st or 2nd slot then the favorite should be played in the 3rd hole of a trifecta.
