Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones
"You are the one person in this forum who shot down the usable solution. You want the game to succeed, you eliminate rebates, you have a 8 percent wps take, a 10 percent double and exacta takeout, a 15 percent takeout on every other exotic. Penny breakage would help a lot but is less important. If the current system won’t allow then you amend it. If the whales won’t go for it then tough shit, because they ultimately aren’t going to have anybody to bet against anyhow. So better that they sacrifice now than later." By Poindexter
I contend that you could eliminate the takeout and racing would not compete with other forms of gambling. When racing was a success it was marketed as a sporting event. Folks did not come to the track hoping to quit their job and earn a living there. This is why I say that the serious handicappers who contribute to these threads have an agenda that doesn't reflect the average slob who wants to forget that job he hates for an afternoon and be entertained. The army of people sitting and watching from home won't save the sport. It's only because when we go to the track we spend half our time staring at monitors because the live racing is too slow. The pace is straight out of the 40's. People want action when they're being entertained. And maybe i'm the only person in here that thinks that means something. But, this is the "idea meeting" and we should be discussing anything no matter how far fetched.
|
IMO, you are too laser focused on people who are not the target market for 2023.
Your target market as I have stated before is your advantage gambler. A person that is using logic, stat analysis, analytics, computers to try and conquer sports betting and dfs. These folks if they ever converted to the game would not be pen and paper handicappers, like I still am and everybody was 30 years ago. I keep reading how slow the game is. There are races going off every few minutes. If you fix the pricing then you have a market. Once you develop a market everybody develops a niche. Some will focus on verticals or horizontals or straight betting. How about conditional betting similar to what caw is doing maybe at post time instead of the bell. Parlays, round robins, carryovers. This game offers a ton of options if the industry ever decides the prioritize the bettor. Meanwhile the folks you are talking about will join the market as the game become more popular and gains exposure. If they aren’t losing 30 percent on the dollar maybe they might stick around. Also once a market is developed again there will be all kinds of new methods used by the public to generate picks. Computerized tools etc.
Obviously the racing industry agrees with you. They have been all in on this nonsense for over 20 years. The article that the op quoted explains just how well it has worked. Imo this sport was killed with a stupid rebating policy. This policy has driven tons of people from the sport and keeps newer customers from sticking around. All the other issues that are brought up are easy to blame. There may be some truth to some of them. That doesn’t mean the sport cannot thrive if pricing is corrected and a lot of good and creative marketing is used to grow the sport. But if you don’t fix the pricing the sport goes nowhere. That 50 percent after inflation drop over the last 20 years may happen in 8 to ten years this time around. The bigger problem is whales only made up about 5 percent of the pool 20 years ago. They can’t grow their betting now without the industry putting more fish in the sea. As the public money becomes less and less so does the amount they can bet. So lose another billion in public money you lose much more than a billion dollars in total handle. It will become quite the vicious cycle.
So like it or not, agree or not, if you want this game to make it, you fix the pricing and use those real smart people to creatively market the game. Otherwise as things get worse and worse, look for takeout hikes/higher rebates to help feed the whales until they eventually kill the market permanently.
I have no idea why anyone can possibly think that what has failed for the last 20 years can possibly succeed now. I also have no idea why these business relationships with other forms of gambling will not eventually exclude horse racing. What will horse racing bring to the table if it continues to slide.
