Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Good point. Another thing that I found strange, Saratoga's track surface was not fast that year, as had been the trend for several years, and the rail was not the best place, many dead rail days. Arrogate ships in and guns down the inside setting brisk fractions for 10 furlongs and draws off powerfully to become the only horse in the history of Saratoga to run 10 furlongs in under two minutes. It did not look natural.
|
I never checked the data to this detail, but it seems his horses "freak" like that more often when he ships. It also seems like it's not unusual for him to ship in several horses and they either all fire their "A" race or better or they all just run OK. He has a very good record shipping to some tracks.
For me, he's a gambling dilemma.
When I evaluate his lightly raced horses based on how they've been running and typical improvement I have one thing in mind, but I know there's a better chance his horse is going to jump up to a big new peak than for the typical good trainer. The problem is the horse is also going to take extra Baffert money. So there's no edge in that knowledge. I feel like I'm playing a form of Russian roulette betting on him or against him and I don't know if the gun is loaded.
