Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If the horse runs an uncharacteristically lackluster race last out, and you find no valid excuse for it...does this last race still account for 50% of your opinion on the horse? Or do you look at the horse's sharp PRIOR races...and skew the percentages in favor of the overall record?
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If I can't find any reason at all to excuse the last race, I'll remain aware that he's still capable of firing his "A" race, but he'd be way less likely to do so than a horse whose last race was sharp.
So that would be built into my thinking about what the fair price is.
50% was just an arbitrary estimate I put out there to approximate reality. With any given horse it will be a little different depending on the specifics of that horse. But that's the general pattern of my thinking.
It works the same the other way around.
All else being equal, if one horse runs a 88 91 89 and then a 100 in his last race, unless I can explain that 100 and believe he can do it again, I'll take a 99 100, 99, 98 over him because of the better overall record. He might run back to that 100, but he's less likely to do it than the horse that's right around that level all the time.
