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Originally Posted by Cratos
But, there is the second part which you say one of the 3 will win 80% of the time. Therefore you would have in a 20 horse field a 12% chance of winning, but the horse that you bet should be not less than 8.40-1 for a long run breakeven.
If you have a 5 horse field you will have a 48% chance of winning and your betting odds should be not less than 2-1 to breakeven.
In summary as your field size increases you need to increase your odds proportional to the breakeven point and conversely as the size becomes smaller you can accept lower odds and still breakeven
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Cratos, your stats are logical. In retrospect, I would guess that 5-horse fields would offer little value. However, I am quite sure that an 80% overall hit rate would be a bit higher for 5-horse fields and quite a bit lower for 12+ fields. I posted my question today before breaking the data down by field size although I know the average field size in the entire sample was 8.1.
I appreciate your input.
Dale
