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Originally Posted by dvlander
Suppose you could isolate three contenders in a large group of races. 80% of the time, one of your contenders wins. The field sizes for the races and the odds for the three contenders can be all over the place but as in any meaningful sample, the 3-5 contenders will win a lot more often than the 10-1 contenders. Other than that, I'm just trying to take advantage of the statistic that one of the three will win at an 80% clip without trying to further rank or separate the three contenders.
There are a lot of creative minds on this board so I'd like to solicit some win wagering strategies to best take advantage of this statistic as-is.
Thanks in advance for your input.
Dale
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I believe the way to view your problem would be to understand that your probability of randomly picking a contender from a large group will be 3/X. Therefore a group the size of the KY Derby field it would be 3/20 or about 6.60-1. However if the field shrinks to a small size of 5 your odds increase to a 3-5 chance of selecting your contenders or about 60%.
But, there is the second part which you say one of the 3 will win 80% of the time. Therefore you would have in a 20 horse field a 12% chance of winning, but the horse that you bet should be not less than 8.40-1 for a long run breakeven.
If you have a 5 horse field you will have a 48% chance of winning and your betting odds should be not less than 2-1 to breakeven.
In summary as your field size increases you need to increase your odds proportional to the breakeven point and conversely as the size becomes smaller you can accept lower odds and still breakeven
