Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
For #2? Probably yes if we're talking about assigning odds to contenders. Definitely yes if it has to be done for all of the horses in a race.
For #3? If you haven't read Steve Fierro's The Four Quarters of Horse Investing then I suggest you do. Then try assigning odds based on his templates. It's harder than it seems. After that you have to track your odds assignments with actual win percentages. Do your 2-1s win 33% of the time? Do your 4-1s win 20% of the time? Do your 6-5s come in at 45%? You get the picture. If they don't, how can you bet overlays when there's no way of knowing if you have one?
And it just gets more difficult as the odds increase. There's less than a 2% difference between a horse at 6-1 and 7-1. Is your handicapping prowess and fair odds assignment good enough to differentiate the 2%?
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Thanks HH. I believe I will try to find the Fierro book. A template system that you learn t o fit sounds like a good idea.. Could be simple when you learn it and get reliable.
I will need to break down race type, relative strength of the remaining contenders after selection, and follow with fitting of the template.
Review race, and repeat
BTW, I didn't even notice the 4 page thread on this subject when I posted. Duh!
Thanks you guys!
