I'm just going to throw this one out there because I found it kind of interesting, even though it's only a 5 horse field.
10-20 2nd @ SA
There's only 1 reason a low percentage barn gives a last-out maiden breaker an 8 month vacation. Let's see if she retained her early speed.
She'll plug along, but I don't think this setup is right for her. She really needs to be more forward against these than what I project. However, legitimate back class can equal a couple extra steps early if a horse has any kind of pop. In this case, I don't believe she has the natural early speed to take advantage of her class advantage.
What is wrong with jockey Gonzalez? The kid has made a handful of money the past 12-18 months. Hopefully it hasn't effected him negatively. Worried because he is riding very poor right now. He hasn't looked good.
The connections (D'Amato had her at LosAl, put a 7lb bug that's not winning any riding titles soon up, owners offered her for 40 cents on the $ they paid for her),
the public (8/1),
and the horsemen (no claim ticket on a D'Amato offered up first out for 40 cents on the $)
were all surprised. Now, the connections (D'Amato moves her to SA, the bug handled her nearly flawless, owners protect her),
the public (2/5 ML)
and the horsemen (protected this time)
are all watching. She's trained well for this, but D'Amato is a good horseman that isn't often fooled. These experienced, back class fillies may expose whatever made everybody hesitant first out.
This has always been a fast filly, but refused to ever settle down and relax early for Warren/Black. She looked like a new filly first out for Palma, and showed the speed is there in the final 1/16 of her last. She's trained well, and her races under Warren/Black indicate Palma hasn't hit the bottom with her. There's more under the hood. I have little doubt of that.
As the Estate of Bud Johnston gets disbursed, we've been seeing all sorts of interesting things with these horses. He always bred half way decent animals. This filly is a Cyclotron, a horse that has sired some very fast horses over the years.
This race should be pretty quick around the far turn, and that's when she is going to really be challenged. Hard to imagine she'll be able to get to the 3/16 pole in the necessary position she needs to win, and still have enough punch to get it done.
Selection here is
Princess Ashlyn, knowing full well that if
G Q Covergirl is the filly she posed as at DelMar, she'll be very difficult to beat.
