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Originally Posted by Stevecsd
Quite impressive.
I read that you are comparing pairs. How does this work with 9 horses in a race? A might beat B & beat might C, but C wins over A this time out. How does your algorithm account for that?
And I have seen many times where horse A beats horse B in a race, but the next time out horse B wins. Can it account for that?
I think the next step is to apply it to actual races to see if the 67% correct rate can win money.
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How to generalize the "pair" comparisons is another challenge that is of course very important to the creation of an algorithmic handicapper but it also does not belong to the topic of this exercise; what I am developing here is a back testing platform that will provide convincing evidence that a specific set of metrics has sufficient predictive value. The next logical step is to use this application to compare different sets of metrics, including other types of figures (like bris figures for example) and derive some useful conclusion about their effectiveness.
