Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
My two cents, I think trying to factor it into ratings, such as adjusting speed figures for ground loss, is generally ineffective.
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That has been my conclusion also. I think of it as more of a plus/minus or strong plus/minus.
From time to time I make bias notes for race cards all over the country. There are certain tracks where ground loss almost never seems to matter. It's not that the rail is dead. You can win inside too. It's just that the outside paths seem to be better by just enough to more or less offset the ground loss and make it impossible to measure any impact. That happens at every track on some days. If you adjusted your speed figures for ground loss you'd create an endless supply of inflated numbers.
You more or less have to watch how the races are developing that day at that track relative what you would consider normal and feel what's going on.
If the horses that are 3-4 wide on the turn are working hard but having trouble gaining on the horses inside of them, then start picking them up once they straighten away, that's telling you something.
If the horses that are 3-4 wide are running right past the fresh horses inside of them, that's telling you something.
If a horse was moving well inside and then stopped when he shifted outside or vice versa, that's telling you something.
So I guess the question becomes how much time to put into it.
Do I really need to know that some horse was 4 wide on both turns on a day where 3 other horses ran huge with the same trip and a few others that were wide won (all while a couple of others set the pace inside and did well)
