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When your selection takes the overland route turning for home, and then loses narrowly to a horse who squirted through along the rail...it's hard not to come away with the impression that ground loss is a significant consideration in the handicapping process. But, as Cj already intimated...you don't handle the ground loss factor by just making a requisite adjustment to the horse's final time. There are pace setup situations involving speed duels where the tracking outside horse has clearly enjoyed the better trip...and is unworthy of the added "credit" that the careless ground-loss handicapper gives it. And...there are also plenty of horses who insist upon making outside moves in race after race , thereby wasting any ground-loss "advantage" that they might have received in the race.
If the handicapper has the time and the inclination to really do a thorough handicapping job...then the ground-loss factor should be given serious consideration. But if the handicapper adopts the ground loss adjustments while excluding the other pertinent aspects of the handicapping puzzle, then, as a handicapping author once so astutely put it..."He is back in deep doo-doo again".
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Live to play another day.
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