Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
It's hard for me to imagine a traditional handicapper outperforming someone with years of racing data using advanced mathematics, models, AI etc.. to handicap a broad range of races.
There are AI models these days that can look at a database of chess games and in less than a few days they are better than Kasparov and Carlsen...and it's not even close. If that kind of power is being applied to racing it's going to be tough to compete.
However, even with all the data, stats, and AI in the world, there's sometimes a subjective element to the interpretation, a pool too small for them, or a pool so large with dumb public money you can get an edge. That's probably where you want to focus. You have to go where they ain't.
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The only problem is.....No model can predict the unpredictable. If all races were run to how they are predicted to be run, not only the race shape but the finish as well, then I could see the edge there. At the end of a race, anyone can say "This is the reason this horse won........", but is it really? Maybe it was another reason. Maybe it was something that was just unpredictable by both the human eye and an AI model. If you analyze long enough, you can find a possible reason why EVERY horse in a race COULD win.
