Quote:
Originally Posted by lansdale
Sorry if this is somewhat off thread topic, but for those who have read Nitro's frequent quotes from Benter's article, it should be obvious that there is absolutely no evidence that Benter is referring to observation or analysis of tote (price) movement immediately preceding a race, which is the method Nitro is touting.
The first Benter quote re 'technical' analysis is a reference to the work of Ziemba (one of Benter's advisors) and Haush on tote analysis, which, though valid, was rendered obsolete by their book, not long after it was published.
The second quote, re gleaning information from the 'public model', his term for what we would call 'the odds' also has nothing to do with tote-watching, as generally understood. It refers to Benter's technique for combining the logs of his projected probabilities with those of the betting public ('the odds') to produce an improved model.
It should be obvious to the most casual reader that Benter employed a fundamental, not a technical model to handicap, and that final time/speed-related factors were among those in his model. In fact, Steve b, who sometimes posts here, was responsible for supplying speed figures to Benter's partner Alan Woods, for a number of years. It would be very interesting to have his comments on this subject in this (or another) thread.
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i don't know anything about benter, other than what alan had told me in passing(nothing of importance), and what is in the public domain.
i also don't know anything about their models, other than alan telling me what % my stuff added to the models(.3 of all form factors).
i also know my stuff was a big part in the models of another syndicate i was involved in, but i am only adept specifically on time stuff, not really anything else.
if nitro thinks the board is the answer, then it's only HIS answer.
it's obviously valid, but he is probably selective in his interpretations.
it would be silly to think that some of those that predominantly use time are not equally selective(and successful).
