Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
So, is it safe to assume Keeneland cash is going into the pools at Belmont?
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That's hard to say, Ralph.
In my own case, I'm not betting Keeneland at all.
(And by that I mean nothing. Nada. Zilch.)
However, I am betting Belmont - as well as a few other tracks.
But I'm not betting extra money on Belmont or those few other tracks. (Just what I would normally bet given my assessment of the strength of each play relative to total bankroll.)
I also have no way of knowing if other players are doing the same.
Now here's what I do think:
Keeneland announced a takeout increase back in August.
Win Place Show was hiked to 17.50% (the maximum allowed by Kentucky state law.) --This is an increase of 9.375% vs. the previous takeout rate of 16.00%.
Exacta, Double, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick3, and Pick4 were hiked to 22.00% (again the maximum allowed by Kentucky state law.) --This is an increase of 15.79% vs. the previous takeout rate of 19.00%.
We polled HANA membership. 63% said they wanted a boycott. 28% said no. And 9% said other.
Based on that we organized a boycott.
Fast forward 13 days into their fall 2017 meet - and Keeneland is down more than
-9.8M or about
-9.11% vs. the first 13 days of their fall 2016 meet.
How much of that
-9% is because we announced a boycott -- and how much is simply the market speaking is anyone's guess.
On the surface, at this point in the meet,
-9% might not appear to be all that bad for them.
As others have pointed out in this thread -- looking ONLY at last year's numbers to this point in the meet: They are likely revenue neutral right now, or possibly revenue positive. (But if so, not by much.)
But I would argue that putting blinkers on and looking ONLY at last year's numbers to this point in the meet would be a mistake.
Last year at this time:
Keeneland was the big dog on the block among the A tracks. They out-handled both Belmont and Santa Anita. They ranked #1 in market share vs. the other tracks they compete with for handle dollars.
Fast forward to now:
Belmont has replaced Keeneland as the big dog on the block. Belmont now ranks #1 in market share among the tracks competing for handle dollars this fall.
I think this is significant.
Right now Keeneland is losing ground to its competitors.
Keeneland is down
-9.8M or about
-9.11%
At the same time Keeneland's two primary competitors, Belmont and Santa Anita, are UP a combined total of
$20.79M or an average of
+12.01%
To my way of thinking:
These are terrible results for Keeneland.
In absolute terms, Keeneland is down roughly
-20% from where my gut tells me they would be had they not had a takeout increase.
Let me put that another way:
If Ken Ramsey had appeared as a guest on Billy Koch's radio show to talk about the horses he was sending to Keeneland this fall -- if Keeneland had gone on Billy Koch's show to talk about their mission in advance of their fall meet -- if they had pulled out all the stops like they did opening weekend and stuffed the entry box with an avg of 100 horses each day -- if their COO had appeared on TVG to tout their "successful meet" -- if they had done everything the same -- except for the takeout increase:
I have every reason to believe Keeneland would still be the big dog on the block with the #1 rank in market share -- and their handle to this point in the meet would be 20% higher than it is now.
THAT's what I think.
-jp
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