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Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
can someone explain trip handicapping? What is someone looking for in the PP's to trip handicap?
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Basically, trip handicappers are looking for one of two things:
> horses with an easy trip they wish to bet against next time
> horses with a tough trip they wish to bet on next time
So what's an easy or a tough trip?
EASY: this can be a few things...
> alone on the lead thru soft fractions (the easiest trip of all)
> a perfect rail run from off the pace (a rare trip)
> a closer that sat behind a brutal 2 or 3 or 4 way pace war and simply waltzed by the tired runners
TOUGH: this can be many things because horses can find trouble anywhere
> left at the gate, lunged at start, etc... (terrible start-spotted the field many lengths)
> travelling wide (not always bad, but generally is)
> being checked or having progress halted
> dueling thru fast splits with 1,2 or more runners
...and on and on and on.
Easy trips are generally easy to recognize, but not always a tough trip (and certainly not by just looking at pp's).
The best trip handicappers aren't looking for the obvious bad trip (like being left at the gate or checking severely) because everyone has seen it. They focus on the subtle complications...stuff like a jockey not putting a willing runner in the right spot during a race, thereby stifling his move and causing defeat.
You can't find these subtle complications in the pp's - as the above poster said:
You have to watch replays (they are readily available on the net and are FREE).
