Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
This thread presents enough data to refute Bayer’s conjecture about the diminished significance of beaten lengths in proportion to distance.
Still, even if we can reject one of the most fundamental axioms of Beyer’s theory, we cannot compare it against other approaches (that potentially can contain equally erroneous assumptions) unless we develop some comparison mechanism that will be able to operate directly of data (maintaining a complete isolation from the algorithmic details is that are used in the implementation layer).
This mechanism should receive a set of speed figures and the corresponding race results and produce a sorted list of them using criteria such as predictability or profit making it possible to decide about the relative effectiveness of each figure making methodology.
Any ideas how such a mechanism can be created?
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To be fair, Beyer is merely using beaten lengths as a way to calculate the time of the also rans. Every horse is rated on the time it ran. I think this thread shows there could be some evolving to a better way, that is all.
