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Originally Posted by cj
I think there are two different things being discussed here, and there is some confusion. How is the value of a "beaten length" relevant to par times, which are based on the winner? They seem like two different things to me.
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a couple years back i had a lot of data for charles town in access and computed median times and standard deviations for common distances. and at least for this track, as race distances increased, the standard deviations increased. not quite proportionally, but closer to beyer than quirin. ie. 1 1/8 m times typically strayed further from the median than 4 1/2 f times.
note that if you don't have a lot of data this exercise could be flawed by having a lot of races clustering around a certain class level at one distance relative to a wider distribution of class levels at another distance, but in general is good for a track like ct with a big sample of races at only a handful of distances with a relatively wide spread (4 1/2- 1 1/8) and established older claimers competing across all the distances.
for cd or another major track you obviously wouldn't want to compare 4 1/2 f races (2 yo msw) with the longer distances where a wider range of classes are competing.
