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Originally Posted by Overlay
I think the keys to addressing this are:
2) dealing with the relative rankings of the horses with regard to their competitors, rather than concentrating on a comparison of the speed figures themselves;
3) viewing the situation in terms of the probabilities associated with the various rankings (as part of a general approach of betting based on value), rather than as a guarantee that any one horse will win today; and
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Good insight. I think rank is probably often not appreciated enough.
If a horse is only 7 Beyer points slower than fastest horse, but there are 6 horses faster than him, he probably doesn't have as good a chance of winning as a horse that is 10 points slower, but who is the 2nd fastest horse. In the latter case, all that horse may need is a sub par effort or very bad trip from one horse to become the most logical winner.
