Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
If I'm not mistaken, there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. Getting a really big picture, Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.
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There was two others, and both races featured horses (non maidens) who had established form.
One was Midnight Bisou and other young fillies (they usually go forwards, not backwards) and one start alw race.
How good do you think McKinzie is at 8.5F? Bolt ran him dead even, earned a solid figure, then in a race with a distance that Bolt should have moved forward with figure wise second off a layoff he got drubbed 3 lengths and more or less paired figures up.
There are solid arguments why Justify may not win the Derby (pedigree, experience, large field with random trouble, foundation) but the idea he just is not that fast is no one of them.
I would argue if anything Beyer has the race too SLOW, I dont think Midnight Bisou went backwards, along with all the other fillies in the race. I think Timeform is spot on with the figures they gave. I have no idea about Bris.
The derby is not going to verify the figure, it will take more races from the entire field to know how good or bad the figure was.
