I would think that winner last time out is far from independent of the speed figure data and would be a poor candidate for the type of adjustment mentioned in my post.
On the other hand a horse that was claimed by a 20% winning trainer away from a 5% winning trainer might well be a candidate for an adjustment and the fact that he was claimed is clearly independent of the PP information.
If a horse has the speed to make a clear lead on the other runners that is also information that is at least partly independent of his PPs viewed in a vacuum and might also inspire an adjustment.
I guess I am agreeing with you that a careful understanding the interrelations of the various factors (both from a conceptual and from an analytical perspective) is pretty important to getting it right.
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