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Old 08-20-2007, 08:24 AM   #14
sjk
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
I would think that winner last time out is far from independent of the speed figure data and would be a poor candidate for the type of adjustment mentioned in my post.

On the other hand a horse that was claimed by a 20% winning trainer away from a 5% winning trainer might well be a candidate for an adjustment and the fact that he was claimed is clearly independent of the PP information.

If a horse has the speed to make a clear lead on the other runners that is also information that is at least partly independent of his PPs viewed in a vacuum and might also inspire an adjustment.

I guess I am agreeing with you that a careful understanding the interrelations of the various factors (both from a conceptual and from an analytical perspective) is pretty important to getting it right.
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