Quote:
Originally Posted by GameTheory
Overlay, how do you handle factors that simply don't apply to all horses in a race? 2nd race off layoff, 1st off claim, trainer angles that only apply to one horse, etc...
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If your research indicates that horses that fit a particular condition run 3 points better than if they did not you can make that adjustment to thier expected speed rating.
Alternatively if you determine that a situation improves a horse's winning chances by 5% you can adjust the win probability and renormalize.
I do some of each.