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[thaskalos]

If you want to go broke in this game, then start assigning figures like 80 and 73 to the horses based on their most recent starts...as if these recent figures somehow describe the ability of the corresponding horses. But if you want to survive in this game, then I suggest you start looking a little more deeply so you can ascertain how the horses earn the speed figures that they record...and if they are capable of REPEATING them.

Some horses record their best figures when they get loose on the lead, so the determination must be made if these horses can get a clear lead today. Other horses run their fastest figures when they drop in class, and are vulnerable when they don't. Still others display the curious characteristic of running faster when they trail other horses at the wire than they do when they themselves win the race.

When I handicap a race and I look at that 80 and 73 that you mention, the first thing that I ask myself is if I have any reason to believe that these figures can be repeated today, under today's racing conditions and circumstances. IMO...the biggest mistake that the handicapper makes is to look at the 80 that the horse earned in its last race and call this horse an "80" going forward. Let's say that out of the 10 races shown in the PPs, the horse shows this 80 in its most recent start...and that 80 is the fastest figure in the horse's record. What reason do I have to believe that this horse will repeat that 80 today...if it hasn't been able to repeat it anywhere in its published record?

It behooves the handicapper to remember that his job isn't to determine which horse has run the fastest prior races. His job is to use all his interpreting skills to figure out which horse will run fastest TODAY. Fortunes have been lost by people who bet on the horse with the fastest last race...when the horse clearly shows that it's incapable of running two fast races in a row. It takes time and considerable skill to handicap races effectively. The horseplayers who look for shortcuts don't last long in this game...although I sure wish that they did.