Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
I was wondering if any kind of stat or program exists to give jockeys something of a performance expectation rating. What I mean by this is say a jockey is on the 4th betting choice in a race & they finish 2nd, I'd give them a +2 score that race, or if you're on a favorite and finish 5th they'd get a -4 for that race. Wonder if an average score would help identify riders who may be over/underestimated by the betting public, or could possibly help identify upcoming apprentice jockeys as ones to watch.
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Been lurking around the forum for a while without contributing, and this post got me thinking. I like the idea, but wanted something that penalized/rewarded runners relative to the rest of the race. Inspired by BIC, and using the public odds, I've come up with:
(ln(p) / sum(ln(pj))) - (ln(1-p) / sum(ln(1-pk))) where p is the runner we're scoring, pj are the runners we've beaten, and pk are the runners to which we've lost.
Looking Race 1 at GP yesterday (2-23-18), the scores would have been:
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Program # Finish Public Prob Score
3 1 .047 10.73
8 2 .244 -1.88
2 3 .065 4.98
1 4 .057 3.67
4 5 .047 2.61
5 6 .244 -20.04
7 7 .011 2.83
6 8 .296 -60.29
I plan to use it in a regression to try and determine significance, but so far it seems to capture the idea that the OP is after. Feel free to refine/improve