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Old 01-09-2018, 09:34 PM   #20
SG4
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
Thanks for all the feedback! Glad this has made for an interesting discussion, and of course shows all the varied ways to approach gathering a worthwhile stat on this end.

I think my interest was more in what jockeys move longshots up, so the query of jockeys on just favored mounts may lend insight in one way, but in my expectations wouldn't be as valuable. Not to mention where were those 25 times Fernando Jara rode a favorite on the NYRA circuit in the last 3 years, I must've been on vacation all those days lol.

The most recent thought that inspired this idea was seeing some of Irad Ortiz's results lately, and it seemed like whenever he was on horses at decent odds they always outperformed expectations, which made me think he really is proving his worth as a top rider. But of course with the simplistic calculation I proposed initially of 0 points at best if you're riding a favorite, a jockey like him who is often on chalk will probably be under-rated in this method. The Wong #'s seemed to be on the right track far as something in a useful vein.

Where the best value lies far as real world application goes I think would be applying this stat to apprentices in their very nascent stages, I feel like if your eyes are open you'll start to see some of those initial longshots running well aren't just flukes & could be the markings of a solid new rider, and you can usually jump on this for a period before word is fully out among the betting public.
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