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Originally Posted by PrairieMeadows
Building on this question, what other sorts of things factor into the decision to pass or play? We have done some analysis of some the determinants of handle with mixed results. I have included some to the things we have looked at below, any input is appreciated.
1. Field Size
2. Betting Interests
3. Competitiveness (variance of a particualar fields odds)
4. Day of Week
5. Time of day
6. Simulcast competition
7. Race Category
8. Distance
9. Wagering Menu
10. Open Company/Statebred
11. Stakes Day or No Stakes on that day.
12. Gender
13. Takeout (Modeled, but no empirical data)
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Most everything you listed Prm plays into it in one degree or another.
In addition a few off the top of my head…
• Racing integrity: I.e.….Drug testing and strict enforcement of suspensions and % of Super trainers per square inch.
• On that train of thought: Since bettors have ZERO recourse when fraud is committed by drugging animals; a large portion of the fines (
that should be 10X what they are btw) should be committed back to the betting pools as a token effort of good will and much needed retribution for being cheated in a financial transaction. (
Not my idea btw; but I can't remember where I heard this)
• Real time information:Accurate on-line shoe board, all other equipment / med changes / strict on track workout policy for FTS and layoffs.
• A timing system that is at least within one century of today. The Gulfstreams of the world with all their cosmetic mumbo-jumbo would have made HUGE strides if they installed a state of the art; saddle cloth enclosed GPS system and posted accurate fractional times.
• Be the leader in directing your equibase chart caller in a standardized notation system. This process of writing the same thing 169 different ways depending on jurisdiction is completely unnecessary.
• To this day tracks don’t have a clue at what is being bet off-shore; or the players that
were off-shore and are now out all together. (
Waiting for someone to take the lead) If the state is blocking takeout reduction; you must target the serious player who is seeking a fighting chance through rebates. The “Pinnacle” model wasn’t just an aberration; they filled a void and the churn they created can be yours if you start viewing gambling in terms of decades instead of minutes.
