As we're on the Triple Crown trail now it pays to pay attention for 3 yo's who can without any indication throw out a big effort.
What I pointed out in my book, in the bonus section, is an unusually fast workout since the horse's last race (12 sec. per furlong or faster) while all previous listed works were unremarkabl (:49, 1:01)etc.
Case in point, 2019 derby winner Country House. Posted that 1:00 last work since his LAST RACE, after a series of slow works. True, horse has been running well in last 3-4 races and even closed well in slop at Oaklawn (a SUSTAINED track wet or dry). Now look at his odds in last 4 races. Do you really think he should have been dismissed at 63-1?? I think not. Just because the oddsmaker made him 30-1 ml. These guys go by Beyer speed numbers and also set the line while the live pp draw is going on! Too much pressure and not a lot of thought.
Look at Instilled Regard in 2018. Do you really think he should be dismissed at 85-1?? Oddsmaker made him 50-1 ml. Why?? Look at his pp's.
Those 2 horses should have been used in the exotics and CH bet straight.
Any horse in these races that are dismissed at 30-1 or more should be checked.
Even 20-1.
Omar
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844
