Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
It might be interesting to do a study on the top 5-10 Derby prospects at any given time and calculate the percentage of them that actually make it to the Derby (and Preakness if you'd like to look at that also).
You could use any list you want. This the current DRF list.
1 Nysos
2 Sierra Leone
3 Timberlake
4 Fierceness
5 Hades
6 Muth
7 Locked
8 Dornoch
9 Track Phantom
10 Catching Freedom
If you use a list like this from Jan, Feb, Mar and April for multiple years you'd be able to figure out how the percentage that get hurt and get off the Derby trail. That would help you decide what kind of premium you need to offset injury risk.
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Futures are tough. The last futures bet I made on a Derby was Captain Bodgit, right around Fountain of Youth timeframe. There was a nice offshore book named Intertops back in the day, this was before the future 'pool'. Captain Bodgit ended up running 2nd to Silver Charm who was tough to get past in the late stages. I did get some revenge with Touch Gold in the Belmont which was just a freak effort, 23 and change first quarter, dropped back then a mile later surged again to run down Bob late.
