Handicap Race 1 at Laurel-8/19-1-1/16M Turf- Clm 16,000 n2L
Weather is threatening today, so very likely this will come off Turf-I will “attempt” to hcp race using Calibr. Hcp. Red Scan technique. I didn’t cherry pick this race as you will see from all the variations.
Belle’ N Tonic 6/1 ML (MTO)-no gains for red scan in last 2r’s
Congrats Graduate 15/1 ML- Gained 5L’s in stretch l.r. But fin. 7(13), too far back? 71 SR at this distance and turf. 2LR also gained 1.5 L’s in stretch but fin. 7(8.5) at 5.5f T.
Beyond Forever. 20/1 ML-nothing to report, last 2 races on turf, dismal fin. 9th by ave 36 bl’s. Going back to earlier in year, this horse is looking to run back on dirt. He ran 2nd last fall in the Md. Million, where he stumbled at the start. Will consider on dirt.
Flashndynmite 6/1 ML LR gained 3.25 Ls in stretch at 5.5f-T 3 -79 SR-3rd-3.25 bl’s
Nada 2nd LR.
Bodega Bay 7/2 ML-LR gained 7.25 L’s fin. 3rd(2.25 bls) 83 SR-today’s dist. And surface
2LR gained 6.25 L’s in stretch fin. 8th (6.5 BLs)-69 SR same dist. And surf.
Stillsexyatsixty 15/1 ML- LR gained 6 L’s Turn/Move and won MC16 in the slop(off turf) 67SR)
2LR-gained 1.75 L’s Turn/Move at this dist. And turf.
Splendor Gal 5/1 ML-no gains to report in last two races but both on 1-1/6M on turf 74SR l.r.
Aunt Mitzi-20/1 ML LR gained 2 in stretch but fin. 10th by 10 BL’s? 64 SR. 2LR-gained 3.5L’s T/M + also gained 3.75 fin. 1st(2.25) 68 SR
Angelinthemorning 6/1 ML-LR gained 2L’s T/M +G 3.5 in stretch fin. 1st(5)-75Sr-Dirt 2LR gained 2.75L’s in stretch fin. 5th(7)-59 SR-this dist. And turf.
Capucine 5/2 ML- LR gained 2.25 stretch fin. 2nd 84SR. 2LR Gained 1L on turn/move-fin. 2nd same dist. And turf both races. Beat
in LR by ½ L, but
was 4 wide. Probable favorite along with
on turf.
Ridgemont High-10/1 ML .dismal last race at OC25K, but 1st after 10 month layoff. Lightly raced and back class.
So who has Turn/Move and who has Stretch gain?
T/M-
gain of 6 and 1.75 L’s in both last 2 R’s
gain of 3.5 L’s in 2nd LR
gain of 2L’ in LR
gain of 1L in 2nd LR
Stretch Gain-
3.25 LR at 5.5f
7.25 anr 6.5 L’s in last 2 Rs
2.0 and 3.5 L’s last 2 Rs,but lr. Was 10th by 10 bl’s-
3.5 and 2.75 in last 2 R’s
2.25 L’s in LR,-2nd
Since last race for all were at diff. Dist’s and surfaces, I used LP from Bris instead of final fraction:
LP-66 dirt-58 turf
LP 85 turf
LP 49
LP 84 @ 5.5f; 73 Tampa turf
LP 91 and 90
LP 71 dirt 67 turf
LP 65/70
LP 77/83
LP 74 dirt/67 Tf
LP 77/67
LP 62 dirt/73 dirt
So do we give more credit to a T/M over a stretch gain?
gained on the turn in both of his last two races, his LP is suspect if you compare to
who gained in the stretch in his last two races.
looks like he could also get in the mix with his last race gain, LP and tougher class of competition.
is the only horse who gained on both the turn and the stretch in last race, although on the dirt. Angles plays are always much clearer when you only have one or two who qualify.
While it's often disparaged here, I will probably attend the OTB today and see if there are any toteboard signals for this race. I have found Lrl. along with Parx and GP to be good toteboard tracks. Will post my findings on that note pre-race.
