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Originally Posted by shouldacoulda
The casino is the worst place to go. Always a house advantage. Trying to hit the big one is usually a recipe for disaster.
I am in a bit of a tight spot myself and am going to Belmont again this weekend. I'm taking my Mom for breakfast at Belmont. She keeps urging me to play. She thinks I'm good. I feel my problem is more in the wager construction than the handicapping. As far as discipline I have no trouble sitting out a race I don't like (another common downfall).
Twice in one week is unusual for me as I don't average once every 5 years. I will not be going for the "big one" however. I want to see how hard it is to grind out a profit after working hard for a little over a year. Learning what I could, and observing what I could, and reading what I could, and of course this forum. In addition to being around it as long as I can remember. I consistently have 3 of the 4 in superfectas and 2 out 3 in the triples. I do hit them but not enough. I hit exactas but the payoffs aren't always the best. I think I have found the key to my missing horse.
I had noticed the physicality and behavior of winners before as well as after the race during the past year. My father had told me that some people strictly handicap from the post parade but he didn't know much about it. That was around 30 years ago. The one thing I picked up on and have not found in the threads on physicality is the size of the horses in relation to the field. You can't tell that on a tv screen shot as there is nothing to compare it to until they are in the gate. Yes, you can compare it to the escort horse but who is to say how large that horse is. I am so intrigued and convinced by this that I am waiting for a copy of "Talking with Horses" and "The Body Language of the Racehorse" on DVD.
More than once I have played a horse that looked great on paper to find it was the runt of the field after they exit the gate. Smaller horses have to work harder to keep up with the bigger ones. You also can't tell muscle tone that good from a tv screen. Not like you can when your 10 feet from the horse. I also don't like being at the mercy of the producer calling the shots. And sometimes there's glare in the picture.
I didn't appreciate the difference until last week at the Belmont. I was starting in the paddock and walking through to catch the post parade. It was like night and day compared to simulcast
So I will put myself to the test. If it works, I'm going back.
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Also read the book. Body Language of Horses by Ainslie and Ledbetter. Very simple easy to read book but it gets you thinking the right way. Small versus big horses depends on the distance and surface not to mention you should have the field handicapped and use the appearance to supplement what you have already done.
