Quote:
|
Originally Posted by sjk
When you bet the horses which have odds greater than your odds line you are betting perceived value.
At the end of the year when you have a lot more money in the account than you started with you know that your perceived value is real value.
|
I understand that the perception exist that perceived value becomes real value if you strictly only bet horses that will pay more than they "should pay" based upon the player's assigned probability to win.
It sounds good in theory that you would make more money in the long run if when you cash a ticket it is for more than "you should be paid" and when you lose a bet you only lose the same amount as you do when betting an underlay.
The problem seems to be in the measurement. The track odds and expected payoffs are rock solid numbers. Your betting(odds)line is just a guestimate at best. How the heck can you quantify the comparison between a guess and a rock solid number?
JM
